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【本文英文版刊發(fā)于今日的南華早報(bào)。作者沙燁授權(quán)觀察者網(wǎng)刊發(fā)中英雙語(yǔ)文稿。】

2014年9月，阿里巴巴開(kāi)始了人類歷史上最大的上市歷程。這是一個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)向世界宣告勝利的時(shí)刻。評(píng)論家們都相互贊嘆著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)改變世界的巨大力量。這兒我想講一個(gè)不同的故事，一個(gè)關(guān)于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)如何創(chuàng)造了不同的宇宙，一個(gè)并行宇宙的傳說(shuō)。

馬云將成為首個(gè)幾乎與地產(chǎn)無(wú)關(guān)的內(nèi)地首富

前兩天晚上我和一個(gè)年輕的企業(yè)家在一個(gè)日本燒烤店晚餐。隔著淺黃色的餐桌和裊裊輕煙，我看著這個(gè)二十多歲的年輕人。在短短兩三年內(nèi)，他創(chuàng)建了中國(guó)最大的移動(dòng)廣告公司之一。他的公司在不同的國(guó)界之間推廣移動(dòng)應(yīng)用。其業(yè)務(wù)為公司獲取了可觀的利潤(rùn)，也為他掙得了上億美元的身家。人類歷史上從未有過(guò)如此的年齡卻能以如此的速度積累財(cái)富。在那一瞬間，我仿佛有了頓悟。這個(gè)年輕人是另一個(gè)宇宙中主人們的一員。那是一個(gè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)造出的并行宇宙。

穿過(guò)一些特殊的輸送門，人們被輸運(yùn)到那個(gè)并行宇宙。以前這些輸送門是通過(guò)一些固定的設(shè)備來(lái)開(kāi)啟。那些設(shè)備叫個(gè)人電腦。而現(xiàn)在新一代的輸送門能夠通過(guò)移動(dòng)智能手機(jī)隨時(shí)開(kāi)啟。一旦被輸運(yùn)到新的宇宙，人們的大腦被完全占據(jù)，注意力徹底沉迷，對(duì)原來(lái)物理宇宙不再有任何感知。

在之前的農(nóng)業(yè)革命和工業(yè)革命里，社會(huì)的發(fā)展遵循著一些基本的法則。這些法則包括經(jīng)典牛頓物理理論，達(dá)爾文進(jìn)化理論，和社會(huì)關(guān)系的積累法則。

經(jīng)典牛頓物理理論讓我們知道質(zhì)量，速度和能量的關(guān)系。要把任何物體搬移，我們需要能量。物體的質(zhì)量越大，速度越快，需要的能量也越大。這個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的法則讓人類社會(huì)的發(fā)展速度受到基本的約束。

達(dá)爾文進(jìn)化理論被用來(lái)解釋個(gè)體，群組乃至社會(huì)通過(guò)自然選擇的過(guò)程如何進(jìn)化和生存。我們積累物質(zhì)財(cái)富，尋找兩性伙伴，組群結(jié)社，都是為了一個(gè)根本的目的。這就是讓我們的基因在自然選擇的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)過(guò)程中能夠生存流傳。

社會(huì)關(guān)系的積累法則和人的社會(huì)性有關(guān)。人是社會(huì)動(dòng)物。在人類文明的發(fā)展過(guò)程中，我們慢慢形成了群組，村莊，城市和國(guó)家。這些社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)影響著我們所有的行為，同時(shí)也為自由跨越這些結(jié)構(gòu)創(chuàng)造了壁壘。要成為一個(gè)成功的社會(huì)動(dòng)物，你需要能夠掌握和掌控這些社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)，而這需要時(shí)間和經(jīng)驗(yàn)的積累。

在新的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)并行宇宙里，這些法則不再適用。電子以光速穿行。一鍵之間，萬(wàn)物可以生長(zhǎng)，也可以湮滅。輸運(yùn)到這里的人們，不再有任何物理外觀特征。他們沉浸在這個(gè)宇宙，不是為了基因的延續(xù)，而是為了大腦的刺激愉悅。物理宇宙里的社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)更是和這里毫不相關(guān)。如果這里有任何法則的話，那是這個(gè)宇宙的主人們?cè)谒麄冏约簞?chuàng)建的疆域里制定的。每個(gè)疆域的主人可以為他的疆域制定他所想要的任何規(guī)則。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)宇宙的主人們常常有著共同的特性。他們有著年輕的物理年齡，可他們遠(yuǎn)比常人更熟悉這里的空氣。Facebook是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)宇宙里最大的疆域之一。扎克伯格則是這個(gè)疆域的王。而坐在我對(duì)面的這個(gè)年輕人正在這個(gè)宇宙里開(kāi)疆拓土，建功立業(yè)。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)形成了并行宇宙

如果有一個(gè)法則是這兩個(gè)宇宙共享的話，那也許是時(shí)間的法則。不管你在哪個(gè)宇宙，只要你的大腦會(huì)隨著身體消亡，你永遠(yuǎn)只有這點(diǎn)時(shí)間。

在這兩個(gè)宇宙之間有著不少連接器。這些連接器是通過(guò)那些以電子商務(wù)或者線上到線下作為商業(yè)模式的公司來(lái)完成。這些公司的主體在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)宇宙，卻要引入物理宇宙里的資源來(lái)形成完整的交易。通過(guò)這些連接器，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)宇宙改變，侵蝕，分解著物理宇宙，如同用巨大的觸手在一個(gè)活體上源源不斷地吸取能量。阿里巴巴和亞馬遜是最好的例子，它們成功地轉(zhuǎn)變和吞噬了很多傳統(tǒng)的零售業(yè)。物理宇宙里的實(shí)體除了配合和改變外別無(wú)他法。抵抗是無(wú)效的。如果不合作，就等著慢慢消亡。

這兩個(gè)宇宙會(huì)不會(huì)在某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)達(dá)到一種平衡？當(dāng)物理宇宙里的那些法則被破壞到一定的程度，它們會(huì)不會(huì)反彈？如果物理宇宙消散淋漓，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)宇宙也會(huì)皮之不存，毛將焉附。可真是這樣嗎？

我們能否在Matrix時(shí)刻到來(lái)之前止步？電影Matrix(黑客帝國(guó))描述了一個(gè)未來(lái)：人們除了維護(hù)身體運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的能量，所有在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中的渴望都能在虛擬世界里得到，甚至更多！

沒(méi)有人知道答案。在那個(gè)時(shí)刻到達(dá)之前，我還是可以盡情投資于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)宇宙，再回到我的物理宇宙來(lái)享受獲取的利潤(rùn)。

在阿里巴巴的路演途中，全世界的投資人簇?fù)矶粒Ｍ軓腎PO中分一杯羹。馬云，綽號(hào)“外星人”。短短15年內(nèi)，這個(gè)無(wú)畏的企業(yè)家從西湖邊起步，打造了中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)最大的王國(guó)，也讓他自己成為了中國(guó)的新首富。“也許他本來(lái)就屬于那個(gè)宇宙”。想到這個(gè)，我終于能為自己的碌碌而釋然，轉(zhuǎn)身回到我溫軟的床上。

（點(diǎn)擊下一頁(yè)，查看英文版）

A Tale of Two Universes

With Alibaba launching the biggest IPO in human history, much has been said about how internet changed the world. Here I want to tell a tale about how Internet creates a separate universe, a parallel universe.

The other night, I was having Japanese grill with a young entrepreneur. Divided by the dinner table, through the faint smokes, I was looking at this young man, just barely in his mid-twenties. In only a couple of years, he has built a mobile advertising company. The company promotes mobile applications across national borders, generating significant profit for the company and a net worth of hundreds of millions for himself. Never before could people of this young age amass wealth in such pace. Suddenly I had an epiphany. This young man is actually one of the masters in another universe. A parallel universe created by the Internet.

People are transported to this new universe through “portals”. These portals used to be of fixed locations through a device called personal computer. Now, new generations of advanced mobile portals called smart-phones are engineered. Once transported, people’s brains are completely absorbed into and immersed in this new universe, making them ignorant of what’s happening in their old physical universe.

In the earlier agricultural and industrial revolutions, the basic laws of we used to define and guide our behaviors were still intact. These laws include the law of Newtonian physics, the law of Darwinian evolution, and the law of social accumulation.

The law of Newtonian physics deals with mass, speed, and energy. To move anything around, you need energy. The heavier the mass, the faster the speed, the more energy is required. This simple law puts a constraint on how fast the society can physically change.

The law of Darwinian evolution is used to explain how Individuals, groups, and civilizations evolve and survive by means of natural selection. We accumulate material wealth, seek sexual partners, and form groups, all for the ultimate purpose that our genes can out-survive our competitors.

The law of social accumulation encapsulates man as a social animal. Through the course of our civilization, we form villages, cities and states. These social structures shape our social behaviors, and in the process create barriers for anyone who wants to cross. To be successful as a social animal, you need to be able to navigate and master the social structure. And that takes time and experience.

Now in this parallel universe called Internet, none of the above laws exists. Electrons are moving at light speed. Objects, no matter large or small, can be created or destroyed with the press of a button. People, stripped of their physical characteristics, dwell in this universe, not for the survival of their genes, but the pure stimulation of their minds. And old social structures do not matter. If there are any laws in this new universe, they are the laws created by the masters or sovereigns of this new universe. These masters are usually of young physical ages yet have breathed in the Internet universe longer than most of us. Each master can demand his own ruling laws in the digital nation that he creates. Facebook is one of the largest such nations, with Mark Zuckerberg its king. And the young man sitting across me is aspiring to create a major one.

If there is any law shared by the two universes, it is probably the law of time. No matter which universe you are in, as long as your brain will die with your physical body, the clock is ticking.

There are connectors between the two universes. They are businesses with ecommerce or online to offline business models. These businesses pull in resources from the physical universe to complete transactions in the Internet universe. Through these connectors, the Internet universe changes, disrupts and erodes the physical universe like sucking energy out of a living body using tentacles. Alibaba and Amazon are perfect examples, transforming and devouring the traditional retail industries with their rise. The entities in the physical universe have no choice but to cooperate and transform. Resistance is futile. Those who don’t will run the risk of extinction.

Will there be a time that the two universes will reach a state of equilibrium, when the laws of the physical universe are disrupted to such a degree that they eventually resist. After all, the Internet universe still has to rely on the physical universe as its foundation. Or does it?

Will we be able to turn back before we reach the “Matrix moment”: other than the energy to sustain our body and brain, we can have anything we want in this Internet universe?

Nobody knows the answer. Before that, I can still keep betting on and investing in the Internet universe, and enjoy the profits in my physical universe.

As Alibaba starts its IPO road show, investors from all over the world are scrambling to get a piece of the action. In merely fifteen years, Jack Ma, the audacious entrepreneur from the scenic city of Hangzhou with a nickname called “Alien”, has built the largest Internet empire in China, making himself the richest person. Maybe he is NOT of this universe after all. With this thought, I can finally have peace with myself, and go to my comfortable bed.